28 Millionen reasons to act: Consequences of high CO2-costs for industrial heating*
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Die Kernpunkte auf einen Blick: Was bedeuten steigende CO₂-Kosten für die Industrie?
- Neuer Kostendruck durch ETS2: Neben dem bekannten ETS1 für Großanlagen greift ab 2027/2028 das neue EU-Emissionshandelssystem (ETS2). Es bepreist erstmals fossile Brennstoffe für Hallenheizungen, Bürogebäude und firmeninterne Logistikflotten.
- Doppelte Kostenbelastung: Unternehmen, die weiterhin an fossiler Prozess- und Gebäudewärme festhalten, zahlen künftig zweifach – über direkte Zertifikate im ETS1 und über weitergereichte Brennstoff-Zertifikatskosten im ETS2.
- Massives Bilanzrisiko: Ein realer Industriebetrieb mit einem Erdgasverbrauch von 30 GWh summiert bis zum Jahr 2040 kumulierte CO₂-Zertifikatskosten von rund 28 Millionen Euro. Ein „Weiter so“ entwickelt sich damit zu einem akuten wirtschaftlichen Risiko.
- Riesige Hebelwirkung bei der Wärme: Der gezielte Austausch fossiler Systeme durch industrielle Abwärmenutzung, Großwärmepumpen oder Power-to-Heat-Anlagen senkt die Emissionen drastisch. Bereits der Ersatz eines 50-MW-Gaskessels kann jährlich rund 6 Millionen Euro an Zertifikatskosten vermeiden.
Picture: Jonathan Marchant on Unsplash
CO₂ Costs Are Reaching Industry Broadly
With ETS2, the EU is introducing a second emissions trading system that, for the first time, prices emissions from building heat, road transport and other sectors not previously covered by ETS1 across Europe. Fuel and combustible suppliers must purchase CO₂ certificates and pass on the costs to their customers via energy prices—making logistics, warehouse heating and office buildings new CO₂ cost drivers in industry. Even if the industrial facility itself is covered by ETS1, additional CO₂ costs from transport and buildings arise through ETS2.
According to the current situation, ETS2 is due to start structurally in 2027, but the EU Council decision of March 2026 provides for a 'smoother' ramp-up with full operational market launch in 2028. Until then, German companies will continue to be subject to the national CO₂ price under BEHG, which in 2026 lies in a corridor of €55 to €65 per tonne and is to be seamlessly transferred into ETS2. Even if, as envisaged by Economy Minister Reiche, CO₂ price jumps should be dampened, it is advisable for industrial companies to become more independent in view of ongoing global crises in order to protect their competitiveness.
ETS1 + ETS2: Double Pressure on Fossil Heat Generation
Large industrial facilities already feel the CO₂ price through ETS1, for example in boilers, CHP plants and electricity price-related indirect emissions. ETS2 extends this pressure to areas such as lorry diesel, company-owned fleets, commuting and delivery traffic, as well as gas- or oil-fired heating systems in non-ETS buildings.
Technically, this means: Those who continue with fossil process and building heat will pay in two places in future—via certificates in ETS1 and via passed-on certificate costs in ETS2.
Solutions such as renewable process heat, large-scale heat pumps, power-to-heat and connection to renewable district or remote heating networks thereby become strategically more attractive.
Making CO₂ Risk Visible: From Calculation to Roadmap
A practical example from an industrial facility with approximately 30 GWh natural gas consumption and 7.4 GWh electricity purchase shows how great the financial risk is: By 2040, cumulative CO₂ certificate costs - based on current CO₂ price studies - can amount to around €28 million.
Such figures make it clear that 'business as usual' is not a neutral option but rather a massive balance-sheet risk.
Tools such as the online tool CO2weg.de (🔗external link to our tool) jointly developed by goodmen energy and M Consult help to make these implicit CO₂ liabilities transparent: Companies can enter their consumption and see how ETS2 costs develop over the years.
The Greatest Lever: Decarbonisation of Heat and Energy Systems
In practice, it is repeatedly shown that the greatest lever for CO₂ and cost reduction lies in heat generation and in the overarching energy system of the site. Examples include replacing gas boilers with biomass or biogas plants, deploying large-scale heat pumps including power-to-heat, utilising industrial waste heat, and connecting to renewable local or district heating networks.
Even individual measures have an enormous impact: Replacing a 50 MW gas boiler can—depending on operating hours—avoid around 60,000 tonnes of CO₂ per year; at €100 per tonne, that corresponds to approximately €6 million in avoided CO₂ costs annually. A 10 MW heat pump replacing gas heat can additionally achieve five-figure tonne-CO₂ savings per year, thereby avoiding further millions in annual certificate costs.
Five Steps to ETS-Resilient Industrial Energy Supply
goodmen energy develops concrete transformation pathways for industrial sites. We typically proceed in five steps: recording current requirements and consumption, detailed load and temperature analyses, identification of efficiency and substitution potentials, development of a target scenario (including CO₂ and cost impact), and planning phased implementation. Economic viability is just as important as efficiency and reliability.
Because we plan technology-agnostically, we can replace fossil boilers with a mix of different sources and generators—for example, renewable networks, waste heat utilisation, large-scale heat pumps, PV-coupled power-to-heat solutions and—where appropriate—biomass. This creates robust transformation pathways that address both ETS1 and ETS2 risks and turn expenditure into investments in your company's future.
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